China increased its soda ash production to 2.053m. tonnes in November 2009, rising 21.3% month on month, according to a data from the China Petroleum and Chemical Industry Association.
Overall, China’s soda ash output climbed 7.2% year-on-year to 18.369m. tonnes in the first 11 months of 2009, but December’s production is not likely to exceed November's owing to a shortage of supply and equipment maintenance at the end of 2009, said Shanghai-based research group CBI (China) Co. Ltd.
But analysts were undecided about the soda ash going into the new year, with the CBI forecasting that the soda ash price may decline in late January 2010, while the China Securities Journal (CSJ) said China's glass and soda ash sectors are likely to perform better than expected during Q1 2010.
Bullish factors include extra domestic demand for glass, and therefore soda ash, driven by the real estate industry, CSJ predicted.
Breaking the production data down, the output of soda ash in September and October respectively increased 9.24% and 3.15% year-on-year, but overall output from January to October was still 1.21% lower than the same period last year, which indicated demand returned on the back of a strengthening economy, especially in construction.
This has led to higher glass demands and in turn rising glass manufacture, with the output of glass sheets reaching 50.24m. weight cases from January to October, up 2.5% from the same period last year.
This in turn has increased glass prices, and by the end of October, the prices of 3 mm, 5 mm and 10 mm float glass respectively came to 80.04 yuan ($12) per weight case, 73.98 yuan ($10.60) per weight case, and 79.87 yuan ($11.80) per weight case, rising 39.88%, 37.22%, and 50.13% from the start of 2009.
And the prices will remain at a high level until the first quarter of 2010, although the risk of amendments made to the Chinese real estate policy, in addition to rising energy and raw material costs, may cause sales to fall in Q2 2010.
The glass industry consumes a number of industrial minerals, including silica sand, soda ash, lime, and borates; in addition to refractory minerals for casting.
